The Illicit Incidence Scenario Builder is a tool that simulates what different levels of illegal incidence can be expected for specific value of the process drivers. It builds upon the data science results of the IT2RM Project and parameterizes an adaptive regression spline structural model. Coefficient values indicate the strength of each specific driver. The simulator allows for a detailed examination of contraband dynamics as different objective conditions change. It is composed of four key modules that allow the visualization of relationships, the simulation of values, the forecast dynamics given a simulated value, and one that visualizes the spread of realizations.

This panel of the simulator shows the relationship between the key model variables. Please select the varaibles for the two graph axis and note whether you would like to see a smoothed fit.

This panel show the simulation results. It displays the values for the country selected and estimates the expected level of illicit incidence, given the parameter values entered in the left-side panel.

This panel simulates the long-term dynamics following the simulated period. It shows the expected illicit incidence four quarters after the simulated period. Note that the simulated number is now treated as an actual and used for the forecasting.

This panel shows the distribution of both the realized and the forecasted incidence values.